In light of recent events in the Middle East and now East Asia, there are some important questions being asked about the possibility of a major global conflict.
Are we headed for another world war?
There are many signs and popular sentiment point to a shift from the unipolar Pax Americana to a multi-polar world with Russia, China, and renegade psycho-states like Iran and North Korea. These powers are divided according the all important questions: Who is rational and who will act in their own best interest? As best we can observe concerning the first group, the answer is “yes” and the the latter group is the wild card, or increasingly a decided “no” in the case of Iran.
In the conduct of foreign policy, I posit that we as a nation and global community cannot treat a country like Iran like a rational entity. Further, such untrustworthy negotiators will answer only to an unmistakable flexing of military might. This does not automatically mean invasion, but they must believe we are not afraid to pull the trigger if it becomes necessary to keep them in line. In other words, the only way we can have credible peace is through credible strength.
Because Russia and China appear to be rational, it does not seem likely that they would instigate a global conflict, as it affects their bottom line and destabilizes their economies. However, they have an interest in undermining US policy and influence in favor of their own increasing clout. They will also flex their muscle in order to gain power and/or resources, but there is no reasonable expectation of global conflict between nation states that we saw in the 20th Century. Rather, rogue nations and terrorists will do anything in their power to create chaos to further their various and sundry, often ego-driven or religious agendas.
As events continue to unfold, each case will prove an opportunity to evaluate the current state of our nation’s foreign policy and it will be useful to speculate how we are viewed by other world powers.
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